THE NAIVE TRADER

This looks like we have interesting position for the USD/JPY market. Since mid March's low this market has seen strong gains without facing substantial drawbacks down below the 110 region. What is interesting now is that this bullish momentum is once again coming to a crossroads. We can see where before this position was rejected, around the 113.155 level in July. But now we are back with strong green candles holding for the last week or so highlighting the potential for further gains to be made during this extra bullish month. However there is reason to believe this progression might be coming to a halt based just on techincal analysis. Below you can see a chart with the Stoch RSI included. I believe this of interesting because it is sitting well within the upper bands and has gone above the 97 mark where we last saw a drawback during this bull run. I also must add that the Bollinger Bands upper band as well are constantly being touched throughout which offers the opi...

Thought I would do a fairly quick update on my current opinion on the market, just focusing on the USD/JPY market for the time being. I drew a couple of horizontals a while ago, looking at where I believed the market would find resistance and potentially bounce and if not, where it would continue down to. I felt short-term, looking at the 3hourly chart the 110.755 was going to offer better resistance considering at the touch point the RSI was oversold. But it looks like the pull back was further than expected, we can see from the RSI that ts is oversold, currently sitting at 27, but because of this not being hugely out the range and the fact the next resistance is looking at the 110.101 I do believe we might see further falling. Yet a contrasting point is that the Bollinger Bands show the candle falling below the lower band and of course this typically results in some kind of rebound depending on the magnitude of volume change over the next period. I wouldn't be looking ...